ereeves's blog

Mexican patent trending, GDP, and inventor/assignee geo-dynamics

Turning to our neighbors to the south, we look at Mexican patent trending.  I used the same methodology for the breakdown of categories as I did in the Korean patent analysis http://community.freepatentsonline.com/blog/korean-patenting-trending-new-bric-or-old-news 

Korean Patenting Trending - (new BRIC or old news?)

Returning to the analysis of patent trends internationally, we look at one of the last decades economic powerhouses: Korea.  As it turns out (and anyone in the patent space knows this), Korea is also a patenting powerhouse - in fact, in terms of simple quantity of US patent grants and published WIPO "apps," they are right at the top of the heap.  A couple of notes about this graph - the patent data (WIPO published and US Grants) is broken into 4 categories:

1) US (Assignee): US patent grant with an Assignee IN Korea

2) US (Inventor): US patent grant with an Inventor IN Korea

3) WIPO (Assignee): Published WIPO with an Assignee IN Korea

4) WIPO (Inventor): Published WIPO with an Inventor IN Korea

 

Powerful Patent Search Techniques: Merging Natural Language Search (NLS) with traditional Boolean and Advanced Faceting

 

One of the great strengths of natural language search (or semantic search, or LSA/LSI, etc.) is its ability to maximize RECALL.  In other words, if you want to make absolutely sure you find EVERYTHING related to a particular topic or document or technology, natural language techniques are great, because they basically rank the entire corpus you are working against (this isn’t strictly true, but I’ll leave that for a moment).  By definition, they are much more about intelligent RANKING than they are about “selective retrieval” (or exclusion) or PRECISION.

Indian patent trending with GDP

Jim O'Neill is credited with coining the aronym "BRIC," and identifying these high growth economies specifically back in 2001 (incidentally, his recent "The Growth Map" is worth a read) and certainly all of them have had incredible economic growth from around 2000 to today, and India is definitely a prime example.

As with the other BRIC countries, India really takes off just before the turn of the century, both in terms of GDP growth and in terms of patent trending (US and WIPO).   And if interest in patent data provides any insight, India ranks only behind the US as the country leading the charts in terms of visitors and page views on FPO (and trending from less than 15% of US traffic to over 25% of US traffic from 2008 to present).  IP awareness and productivity have grown extremely quickly in India over the period that their economic engine has taken off.

Russian patent trending and GDP

Rounding out our "BRIC" analysis, we visit Moscow, combing through the patent records and compare with GDP trending (as we did with Brazil and China previously).  Once again, we encounter a familiar set of curves with marked growth occuring 1998 and beyond.  As with the other analysis, this data is rich with opportunity for further analysis - we leave you with just this tidbit to whet your appetite and invite you to join us in the many additional inquiries.  Keep in mind again we are tracking ONLY WIPO and US published patents (apps for WIPO) for the purpose of this analysis.

 

Patent Class Searching - The Right Way

 

Patent searchers seem to be fairly opinionated about class searching. Some think it is essential, while others avoid it like the plague. I used to lean towards the “plague” side, on the theory that I could never be sure I knew all the relevant classes, so I’d rather stick to keywords.

That changed once I had access to facets. Facets make class searching a no-brainer. How? Read on…

Let’s assume I’m doing a patentability search for new titanium alloys that are particularly appropriate for bicycle frames. My query is ‘titanium bicycle frame’Note that I am purposefully leaving this search quite broad. I haven’t included terms like “alloy” or related terms such as “vanadium” or “silicon” (common alloying elements for titanium). I haven’t tried to refine it in any manner. I want a very broad search so as not to miss anything.

GDP and patent trending - Next Stop: Rio de Janeiro

Frank Sinatra famously quipped "they've got an awful lot of coffee in Brazil."  indeed many of us who count ourselves among the caffeine-addicted reap the benefits of beans harvested in Brazil and elsewhere daily.  It also appears that Brazilian inventors have awakened to the international IP explosion and "they've got an awful lot of patents in Brazil".  In looking at the trending of patenting activity from Brazil (for US patents and WIPO published), one sees a marked acceleration between 1998-2003.  In reality, pre-1998 saw negligible participation from Brazilians in US/WIPO patenting activity in terms of total numbers.  That seems to be changing - in a big way.  Following trends, it is likely WIPO filings will pierce 1,000/year very soon (with US filings not far behind).

How does Chinese patenting activity in U.S. (and WIPO) compare with GDP growth?

Napoleon once referred to China as a “sleeping giant,” alluding to the potential awesome military might therein.  And while nobody today is unaware of China’s massive economic growth and potential (and the impact their prospects and performance will have on the world economy), evidence of “hockey-stick” growth really becomes apparent around 1998.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Chinese GDP (adjusted for PPP (normalized)), as a share of the global economy, will cross both the European Union GDP line and the U.S. line some time in the middle of this decade.

Innovation - What can your government do for you?

On October 28, 2011 the White House reprised a 1987 Executive Order with a Presidential Memorandum  for “Accelerating Technology Transfer and Commercialization of Federal Research in Support of High Growth Businesses.

President Obama challenges the executive departments and agencies that conduct R&D “to improve the results from its technology transfer and commercialization activities. The aim is to increase the successful outcomes of these activities over the next 5 years…” Core to this initiative is “fostering innovation” more broadly, as “innovation fuels economic growth.”

The Campus Kings of Patents - University of California system dominates innovation

 Patents offer a sustainable (~17 years) competitive advantage when commercialized meaningfully.  Yes, most patents are worth nothing.  Many patents COULD be worth a lot but are underutilized or un-asserted.  Regardless, there is no question that patents are a crucial strategic asset to commerce and have become even more important with the dawn of industries such as computers, pharmaceuticals, telecomm, biotech, etc. – and looking ahead, who doesn’t envision a future dominated by new technologies in biologic/genetic engineering and nanotech (among other things) – patents will be an essential part of the next technological revolution(s) – probably in unprecedented ways.  As an example, Nortel’s portfolio of patents (a company in bankruptcy proceedings) recently transacted for over $4 billion.  It isn’t a matter of if, but simply a matter of when

One arena of vast scientific exploration, creativity, and productivity is the educational institution.  This resource historically has been relatively dormant with respect to intellectual property.  They seem to be awakening and are fertile ground for innovation, partnering, and perhaps unique strategic opportunities for corporate markets.  Smart companies understand this and are already planning for the future, establishing open innovation processes or partnering deeply with key innovators in the academic community.

In the 1960’s, only 15 educational institutions found their way into the top 5,000 entities patenting in the United States.  By the 2000’s, this number had grown to 137 (across all time, 138 institutions now reside in the top 5,000 for total patents granted).  The contribution from these institutions amounted to just over a tenth of a percent of the total granted patents in the 60’s – again, by the 2010-11, this number was over 2 percent. 

Conservatively, patents granted to these top 138 institutions will exceed 50,000 in the current decade.  The University of California tops this list and projects to produce well over 4,000 patents over this period of time.  International institutions on this list project to well over 10,000 U.S. patents.

In the 1960’s there was one international institution in the top 5,000 – 1970’s there was 2.  During the 2000’s, there were over 30 (their share growing over this period from less than .1% to almost .4% in 2010-2011 (of total patents)).  When evaluated as a percentage of institutional patents in the high-flyer cohort (top 138), non-U.S. institutions were about 14% in the 2000’s and now account for almost 20%.

Overall patenting activity for academic institutions (a couple of quasi-educational institutions are included in this analysis) shows University of California system as by far the most productive.

 

In looking at the very most recent trending (grants from 2010 and 2011 only), the picture changes a little bit:

 

There are several interesting trends that are evident at a glance (or with a little back-of-envelope math).  One, the rate of patenting activity is accelerating dramatically in the institutional space (UCal’s 2010-11 patents account for almost 9 percent of their entire portfolio (going back around 50 years)).  And this is still true when pressed up against the across-the-board acceleration in patenting activity (as stated above, the share of all patenting activity from the high-flying 138 institutions went from .1% to over 2% of total).

The other trend is the significant increase in international institutional patenting in the U.S.  While the French Institute of Petroleum has fallen off the top 20 (they are quasi-educational anyway), Tsinghua University, National Taiwan University, and the Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) are emerging players this decade and are obviously integrating patenting (in the U.S. specifically) into their mission.   There are numerous public policy ramifications for all of this, as well as obvious signals to corporate enterprises that see their future tied to innovation and intellectual property stewardship and growth.

Trends towards open innovation should also hasten the increased importance in institutional-corporate partnerships in R&D, co-creation, and foundational research for the next generation of products and services.  We at FPO will continue to watch this and bring light to these trends, as well as provide a platform for information exchange and open dialogue.  Watch for our next article in the Institutional analysis series…

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